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NZGBS: Closed At Session Cheaps After Stronger Than Expected Employment & Wages Data

BONDS

NZGBs closed on a weak note, with benchmark yields 8-13bps higher and the 2/10 curve flatter, after Q4 employment and wages data printed stronger-than-expected across the board: Employment Change 2.4% q/q vs 2.1% est. and an upwardly revised 2.7% prior, Unemployment Rate 4.0% vs 4.3% est. and 3.9% prior and Private Wages Including Overtime 1.0% q/q vs 0.8% est and 0.9% prior.

  • Ahead of the data drop, NZGBs were little changed, ignoring the strength in US tsys overnight. US tsys have slightly extended the overnight rally, with yields ~1bp lower in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s 4-8bps drop across benchmarks.
  • Swap rates are 8-12bps higher on the day, with the 2s10s curve flatter.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing 8-16bps firmer for meetings beyond April. A cumulative 73bps of easing is priced by year-end compared to 96bps last Friday.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar is empty.
  • Tomorrow, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$275mn of the 1.5% May-31 bond, NZ$150mn of the 3.5% Apr-33 bond and NZ$75mn of the 2.75% Apr-37 bond.
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