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NZGBS: Closed Little Changed But At Session Highs

BONDS

NZGBs closed little changed but a dramatic improvement from earlier in the session when they were as much as 6-7bps cheaper.

  • Apart from the previously mentioned Manufacturing PMI and PPI data, there have been few notable domestic influences.
  • Notwithstanding today’s cheapening, NZGBs remain 9-25bps richer than Wednesday’s pre-RBNZ decision levels. The 2/10 curve is 16bps steeper.
  • The move away from session cheaps was assisted by cash US tsys, which are 1-3bps richer in today’s Asia-Pac session.
  • NZ-US 10-year yield differential is 8bps tighter at +23bps. The differential has traded in a +15 to +85bps range over the past 12 months.
  • Swap rates closed 1bp lower to 2bps higher, with the 2s10s curve flatter.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is 4-6bps firmer for meetings out to Apr-25. A cumulative 79bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Next week, the local calendar will see the Performance Services Index on Monday, REINZ House Sales and Trade Balance data on Tuesday and Q2 Retail Sales Ex Inflation on Friday. Also, RBNZ Deputy Hawkesby Speaks on Tuesday.
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