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NZGBS: Little Changed, US Tsys Subdued Ahead Of CPI/PPI Data Later In The Week

BONDS

In local morning trade, NZGBs are little changed after US tsys had a subdued session ahead of CPI/PPI data on Thursday/Friday. Little reaction in US tsys to a lower than expected Trade Balance (-$63.2B vs -$64.9B est). Rates appeared to follow EGBs as they drifted off lows following several EUR IG supply unwinds.

  • US tsys finished the NY session with yields 1-2bps lower across benchmarks.
  • Projected rate cuts for early 2024 recovered slightly after unwinding Mon's gains: January 2024 cumulative -1.1bps at 5.318%, March 2024 cumulative of -16.6bps at 5.163%, May 2024 cumulative -38.3bps at 4.946%.
  • In its latest Global Economics Prospects report, the World Bank said it expects global growth to slow to 2.4 per cent in 2024, from 2.6 per cent in 2023, and “the medium-term outlook has darkened for many developing economies amid slowing growth in most major economies, sluggish global trade, and the tightest financial conditions in decades”.
  • Swap rates are unchanged.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings.
  • Barfoot & Thompson, which sells about a third of residential properties in Auckland, said the average price rose 0.4% m/m (-2.1% y/y) in December.
  • Seasonally adjusted filled jobs rise 0.1% m/m in November vs 0.4% prior.
  • Today, the local calendar also sees ANZ Commodity Prices.
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