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NZGBS: Richer To Start The Week, US Tsys Supported By PPI Data

BONDS

In local morning trade, NZGBs are 3bps richer after US tsys finished Friday with another bull-steepening following lower-than-expected PPI data. US producer prices decreased 0.1% in December compared with expectations for a 0.1% increase. This saw the annual rate for headline and core prices at 1% and 1.8% respectively. Ex Food and Energy were lower than expected as well.

  • Short-end rates held strong into the close, indicative of higher projected rate cuts through mid-2024: March 2024 chance of a rate cut was 77% w/ cumulative of -20.9bp at 5.120%, May 2024 was fully pricing in 25bp cut now, cumulative -50.1bp at 4.828%. June 2024 has cumulative -80.4bp at 4.525%.
  • A reminder that the US will observe the Martin Luther King Day public holiday on Monday. For FI futures: Globex opens Sunday evening at 1800ET as usual but closes at 1300ET Monday. Monday Globex re-opens at 1800ET, preceding normal session hours on Tuesday.
  • Swap rates are 1-5bps lower, with the 2s10s curve steeper.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing little changed out to August and 2-4bps firmer beyond.
  • Today, the local calendar is empty, although CoreLogic House Prices are due at some stage this week.
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