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NZGBS: Sharply Richer After RBNZ Signals 5.50% As The Peak

BONDS

NZGB yields gapped 15-21bp lower after the RBNZ lifts the OCR by 25bp to 5.50%, as expected, but surprises the market signalling that the current level is likely to be the peak. RBNZ dated OIS going into the decision had priced a peak of 5.93%. The OCR will need to be in restrictive territory for the foreseeable future. The RBNZ sees the OCR starting to decline from Q3 2024, the time when it believes inflation will be back in the 1-3% target band.

  • Swap rates are 11-21bp lower with the 2s10s curve 10bp steeper.
  • RBNZ dated OIS has shunted 10-35bp softer across meetings after the RBNZ decision.
  • RBNZ Governor is due to give a media conference at 0400 BST.
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