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NZGBS: Weaker, US Tsys Cheaper After ISM Prices Paid Data

BONDS

NZGBs opened 8-9bp weaker after US tsys sharply higher on the release of April ISM Manufacturing data. While the ISM Manufacturing Index increased slightly more than expected to 47.1 (46.8 est.), it was the Prices Paid component, which came in well above expected (53.0 Vs. 49.0), which sparked the market reaction. Bloomberg reported that JP Morgan agreed to acquire First Republic Bank in a government-led deal with JP Morgan and the FDIC agreeing to share the burden of losses.

  • Swap rates opened 6-7bp higher with implied swap spreads tighter.
  • RBNZ dated OIS opened 5-9bp firmer for meetings beyond October with April’24 leading. The May meeting has 23bp of tightening priced with terminal OCR expectations at 5.55% (July).
  • There is no local data ahead of tomorrow’s release of the Q1 Labour Market Report. Consensus expects some cooling in tight labour market conditions. Q1 wage growth is however expected to remain at Q4’s strong pace.
  • The RBNZ Financial Stability Report is also slated for tomorrow. The RBNZ release an article yesterday stating that the potential losses for local banks from interest rate movements are smaller than abroad.
  • Australia sees the RBA Policy Decision today, with no change expected and priced by the market.
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