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NZGBS: Yields Follow Global Benchmarks Higher

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NZGB yields shift 5bp higher across the curve early on Tuesday, with spill over from weakness in core global FI markets (aided by firmer than expected, albeit muddied by methodology tweaks, Spanish CPI data) in the driving seat.

  • Meanwhile, swap rates are 3-4bp higher across the curve, resulting in slightly narrower swap spreads after yesterday’s widening.
  • RBNZ dated OIS is showing 62bp of tightening for next month’s meeting, effectively a coin flip between a 50 or 75bp OCR hike. Meanwhile, terminal OCR pricing has edged back above 5.35%.
  • The local docket is empty on Tuesday, although liquidity will pick back up as Aucklanders return after yesterday’s local holiday.
  • Chinese official PMI data will provide the broader macro highlight in Asia-Pac hours, while there may be some trans-Tasman impulse derived from the latest monthly retail sales print in Australia.
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NZGB yields shift 5bp higher across the curve early on Tuesday, with spill over from weakness in core global FI markets (aided by firmer than expected, albeit muddied by methodology tweaks, Spanish CPI data) in the driving seat.

  • Meanwhile, swap rates are 3-4bp higher across the curve, resulting in slightly narrower swap spreads after yesterday’s widening.
  • RBNZ dated OIS is showing 62bp of tightening for next month’s meeting, effectively a coin flip between a 50 or 75bp OCR hike. Meanwhile, terminal OCR pricing has edged back above 5.35%.
  • The local docket is empty on Tuesday, although liquidity will pick back up as Aucklanders return after yesterday’s local holiday.
  • Chinese official PMI data will provide the broader macro highlight in Asia-Pac hours, while there may be some trans-Tasman impulse derived from the latest monthly retail sales print in Australia.