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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessNZGBS: Yields Higher & Close To Session Cheaps, RBNZ Policy Decision Tomorrow
NZGBs closed just shy of the session’s worst levels, with benchmark yields 3bps higher.
- There hasn’t been much in the way of domestic drivers to flag, outside of the previously outlined NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion.
- Nevertheless, the local market's focus this week is on tomorrow’s RBNZ Policy Decision. We expect it to leave rates again at 5.5% where they have been since May last year. The RBNZ is firmly on hold and there appears to be a high bar for it to shift rates in either direction for now. Bloomberg consensus is also unanimous in expecting the OCR to be left unchanged. (See MNI Preview here)
- The April meeting will not include a forecast update or a press conference. We expect the statement to be in line with February’s softer tone with a moderate tightening bias retained.
- Swap rates closed 2-3bps cheaper, with the 2s10s curve flatter.
- According to RBNZ dated OIS pricing, there is only a 5% probability assigned to a 25bp rate hike tomorrow. However, what stands out more prominently is the indication that a cumulative easing of 59bps is still priced in by year-end.
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.