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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
October advance retail sales - as ever a volatile series - will provide the latest check on the pulse of the US consumer amid soft payrolls and inflation data for the month. Today's report is estimated to show a contraction of -0.3% M/M, vs +0.7% prior, with sell-side estimates ranging from -0.7% to +0.3%.
- Ex-auto/gas and the GDP-input Control Group are each seeing slowing to +0.2% (+0.6% prior). With an expected ex-auto contraction of -0.2%, the implication is that softer motor vehicle sales and a drop in gasoline prices are seen dragging on the headline figure.
- Additionally, the monthly CPI reading of 0.0% M/M suggests a negative "real" figure (though of course each dataset captures different baskets).
- A few real-time spending indicators show diverging signs for spending in the month: BofA's credit card spending series showed total card spending per household at -0.2% M/M in Oct vs +0.2% prior; the BEA's card transaction tracker shows +0.7% vs -6.0% prior with significant weakness in nonstore retailers, electronics/appliance and furniture stores, with strength in bars/restaurants, sporting goods stores, and general merchandise stores.
Source: Census Bureau, MNI, BBG
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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