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Off Intraday Highs, But Still Supported By Soft UK/DE Data

EGBS

After finding a morning bid following soft German PPI and UK retail sales data, core/semi-core EGBs have drifted away from intraday highs.

  • Bunds are 16 ticks higher at 134.11 , some 40 ticks above today's intraday low of 133.71. A clear break of the 20-day EMA at 135.49 is needed to ease bearish pressure.
  • The details of the German December PPI pointed to further softening of core goods pressures in Europe's largest economy.
  • This release, alongside earlier upticks in European equities has helped periphery spreads to Bunds tighten, with the 10-Year BTP/Bund spread 3.3bps tighter at 154.5bps. Portugal sees its sovereign rating reviewed by DBRS Morningstar after hours, but a change to the current "A" rating is unlikely.
  • The German and French curves have flattened, with the former's yields flat to -2.5bps today.
  • The regional Eurozone data docket is light today and the ECB has entered its pre-meeting quiet period (Lagarde's participation in a Davos panel on "Creating jobs for a new era" has not prompted any meaningful headline flow).
  • Markets look ahead to US UoM inflation expectations and Fed-speak this afternoon.

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