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Off Lows After Thanksgiving Catch-Up, Powell On The Horizon Next Week

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys closed 4.5-6.5bp cheaper across the curve having pared losses over the hour leading up to the early close. The intraday flattening pushed 2s10s back to -48bps off a high of -45bps in London hours, back where it started the overnight session after the Thanksgiving closure for a modest 1.5bp steepening on Wednesday.
  • The latest bid came with WTI pushing lower late in the session, helped by today’s successful Israel-Hamas hostage swaps but the timing of the move suggests its more likely attributed to pre-weekend positioning.
  • An hour earlier, TYZ3 closed at 108-15 (-13+) after lifting a couple ticks shortly beforehand. The prior low of 108-10+ saw it move another step closer to support at 108-05+ (50-day EMA). Volumes have been inflated today by quarterly roll activity.
  • PMIs earlier were mixed and provided little immediate directional bias, with services beating to offset softer manufacturing, but the details showing overall headcount falling for the first time since Jun’20.
  • Next week gets off to a quiet start before data and Fedspeak pick up Tuesday. Focus is later on in the week though, with the second Q3 GDP release Wed, monthly PCE/core PCE Thu and Fed Chair Powell in a fireside chat Friday.
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