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Off Yesterday’s Lows

GILTS
Bank Of England (BOE) Market NewsHomepageBond Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

Gilts move away from yesterday’s late lows alongside wider core global Fi markets.

  • Futures are +8 at 95.68.
  • Cash gilt yields are 2-5bp lower on the day, bull steepening.
  • Some pointed to slightly more dovish snippets from Fed’s Bostic as supportive for bonds in Asia hours.
  • Spanish CPI data saw a 0.1ppt downside surprise for CPI Y/Y and a 0.1ppt upside surprised for HICP Y/Y.
  • SONIA futures and BoE-dated OIS are little changed vs. pre-gilt open levels (flagged earlier).
  • Yesterday’s low (95.33) presents initial technical support, with bears in control at this stage. Bulls need to overcome yesterday’s high (96.43).
  • Local headline flow has seen PM Sunak suggest that a vote for the Conservatives is a vote for interest rate cuts.
  • Expect political matters to dominate UK headlines up until (and after) the July 4 election.
  • The UK calendar is essentially empty today, which will leave focus on headline flow and cross-market matters.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Jun-245.198-0.2
Aug-245.125-7.5
Sep-245.067-13.3
Nov-244.957-24.3
Dec-244.896-30.4
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Gilts move away from yesterday’s late lows alongside wider core global Fi markets.

  • Futures are +8 at 95.68.
  • Cash gilt yields are 2-5bp lower on the day, bull steepening.
  • Some pointed to slightly more dovish snippets from Fed’s Bostic as supportive for bonds in Asia hours.
  • Spanish CPI data saw a 0.1ppt downside surprise for CPI Y/Y and a 0.1ppt upside surprised for HICP Y/Y.
  • SONIA futures and BoE-dated OIS are little changed vs. pre-gilt open levels (flagged earlier).
  • Yesterday’s low (95.33) presents initial technical support, with bears in control at this stage. Bulls need to overcome yesterday’s high (96.43).
  • Local headline flow has seen PM Sunak suggest that a vote for the Conservatives is a vote for interest rate cuts.
  • Expect political matters to dominate UK headlines up until (and after) the July 4 election.
  • The UK calendar is essentially empty today, which will leave focus on headline flow and cross-market matters.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Jun-245.198-0.2
Aug-245.125-7.5
Sep-245.067-13.3
Nov-244.957-24.3
Dec-244.896-30.4