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OFZ Bonds Snap Multi-Month Consolidation Pattern (1/2)

RUSSIA
  • Russian OFZ bonds remain firm today, bull flattening -4bp in 7-10Y yields
  • 10Y OFZs have made a notable turnaround since 19 July, with yields dipping -35bp in just over a week after peaking around 7.23%.
  • Having moved through the April low at 6.92, the next major levels to the downside come in at 6.72 & 6.32.
  • Yields have been consolidating in the 7.00-7.35% range since march this year with a slight upwards bias, driven higher by runaway inflation and geopolitical uncertainty surrounding US sanctions, but have appeared to have snapped this trend this week
  • The CBR's accelerated hiking cycle (+225bp) has also bolstered real yields/carry in RUB assets, supporting a more attractive outlook at these cheaper valuations.
  • An improvement in US-Russia relations could also buoy sentiment in the space, provided strategic tomorrow's stability talks deliver some form of stable foundation for better relations and future communication.


MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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