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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessOIES Lower Brent Forecast on Weaker OECD Demand and OPEC+ Supply Strength
The 2023 Brent forecast has been revised down by 1.8$/bbl to 83.4$/bbl but with 4Q23 upside risk due to geopolitics according to the latest Oxford Institute for Energy Studies monthly oil report.
- The 2024 Brent forecast has been revised down by 2.5$/bbl to 84.1$/bbl assuming no OPEC+ output policy changes.
- An oil market surplus of 160 kb/d is expected in 2023 with a 4Q23 deficit lowered by 770kb/d to -410kb/d on weaker OECD demand and higher-than-expected OPEC+ supplies.
- An oil market surplus is expected from Q1 onwards with 2024 at a surplus of 590 kb/d. OECD stocks are projected to build closer to their 5-year average in 2024 and break above the average by year-end.
- Global oil demand growth unchanged at 2mb/d in 2023 and 1.2mb/d in 2024 with 4Q23 demand growth at 1.6mb/d and 1Q24 at 1.2mb/d.
- Global supply growth in 2023 has been revised up by 120kb/d to 1.6mb/d and 2024 revised up by 130kb/d to 1.6mb/d. 4Q23 supply growth of 130k/bpd and 1Q24 of 420kbpd driven by OPEC+ and US while 2024 is also supported by output from Venezuela, Kazakhstan and Russia.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.