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OIES Lower Brent Forecast on Weaker OECD Demand and OPEC+ Supply Strength

OIL

The 2023 Brent forecast has been revised down by 1.8$/bbl to 83.4$/bbl but with 4Q23 upside risk due to geopolitics according to the latest Oxford Institute for Energy Studies monthly oil report.

  • The 2024 Brent forecast has been revised down by 2.5$/bbl to 84.1$/bbl assuming no OPEC+ output policy changes.
  • An oil market surplus of 160 kb/d is expected in 2023 with a 4Q23 deficit lowered by 770kb/d to -410kb/d on weaker OECD demand and higher-than-expected OPEC+ supplies.
  • An oil market surplus is expected from Q1 onwards with 2024 at a surplus of 590 kb/d. OECD stocks are projected to build closer to their 5-year average in 2024 and break above the average by year-end.
  • Global oil demand growth unchanged at 2mb/d in 2023 and 1.2mb/d in 2024 with 4Q23 demand growth at 1.6mb/d and 1Q24 at 1.2mb/d.
  • Global supply growth in 2023 has been revised up by 120kb/d to 1.6mb/d and 2024 revised up by 130kb/d to 1.6mb/d. 4Q23 supply growth of 130k/bpd and 1Q24 of 420kbpd driven by OPEC+ and US while 2024 is also supported by output from Venezuela, Kazakhstan and Russia.

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