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CANADA JULY RETAIL +0.3% VS FORECAST 0%, PRIOR +0.1%

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Oil And Gold Ease Intraday, But Hold Onto Strong Gains

COMMODITIES
  • Crude oil has traded flat to lower for most of today but is still up sharply from Fri close levels following new sanctions over the weekend including the targeted use of SWIFT withdrawal.
  • Peace talks between Russia-Ukraine finished with Russia saying Ukraine has agreed to another round of talks. Earlier news of the U.S. and allies considering the release of 60 million barrels to combat high prices made relatively little impact.
  • WTI is +4.3% at $95.5 and has confirmed a resumption of the underlying uptrend and an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Resistance remains $100.54 (Feb 24 high) whilst key support is seen at $90.06 (Feb 23 low).
  • Brent is +3.2% at $101.1, also in an uptrend for now even if prices continue to trade below the Feb 24 high of $105.79. Support is seen at $96 (Feb 25 low).
  • Gold has fluctuated today on perceived progress with the peace talks but has remained above Friday's close the whole time, currently up strongly with +0.7% at $1903.34. The outlook remains bullish following recent gains but its back inside its bull channel drawn from the Aug 9, 2021 low, which gives key short-term resistance at $1940.1.
  • Elsewhere, European natural gas prices saw further large increases, with Apr22 contracts up nearly 6% on the day and standing 40% higher ytd.
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