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OIL: Crude Dips Amid Hurricane and Demand Uncertainty

OIL

Crude markets are easing lower with the potential for disruption to coastal refining and shipping facilities in Texas due to Hurricane Beryl and amid hopes for a ceasefire deal in Gaza.

  • Markets are supported by sentiment for a tighter summer market while assessing possible future oil demand amid uncertain China growth and US Fed easing. Industry reports from IEA, EIA and OPEC this week may help to provide some more guidance.
    • Brent SEP 24 down 0.4% at 86.17$/bbl
    • WTI AUG 24 down 0.6% at 82.7$/bbl
    • Brent SEP 24-OCT 24 up 0.03$/bbl at 0.86$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 down 0.11$/bbl at 5.19$/bbl
  • Exxon Mobil only sees a small impact on its output from Beryl, which has been reclassified as a hurricane again. Shell’s Perdido platform was shut down and evacuated by July 4 ahead of the storm. The ports of Corpus Christi, Houston, Galveston, Freeport and Texas City closed on Sunday to prepare.
  • Fires are threatening Alberta’s oil fields again. Suncor Energy on Friday shut down its 215kbpd Firebag oil sands site in northern Alberta in precautionary measures for a wildfire about 5 miles away.
  • Strong crude curve backwardation and another rise in money managers net long crude positions are further signs of the near term bullish market sentiment.
  • Diesel and gasoline crack spreads are also softer today as diesel continues to ease back from the highest since early April seen last week.
    • US gasoline crack down 0.4$/bbl at 24.36$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0.8$/bbl at 25.79$/bbl
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