Oil End of Day Summary: Volatility on Ceasefire Uncertainty

Crude markets have been volatile during US hours amid earlier headlines which sparked optimism for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. While earlier tweets from Al Jazeera suggesting as such were deleted, crude has continued to soften.

• WTI MAR 24 down -2.5% at 73.93$/bbl
• Bloomberg reports that Al Jazeera has deleted a tweet, "saying Israel agrees to pause in fighting." A report which was widely circulated and prompted moves in oil markets. See earlier bullet.
• CBS News is reporting that according to its sources, the US has a series of strikes planned in the coming days in response to the drone attack on a Jordanian outpost that killed three US service personnel and injured dozens more over the weekend.
• OPEC+ has not made any recommendations to change the group’s output policy in the today’s JMMC meeting but noted high conformity with production quotas, the group said in a release.
• Oil flows via the Suez Canal are down about 15% with safety concerns impacting the shipping route according to Morgan Stanley on Jan 31.
• North Sea Forties crude oil exports fell to 2.8mn barrels in January, down from 6.3mn original scheduled in the loading plan.
• China’s crude refining capacity may increase 2.7% y/y in 2024 according to GL Consulting, a division of OilChem.
• Chinese oil inventories fell to the lowest level in eight months at the start of January but remained well above the five-year average, Vortexa data showed.
• Wood Mackenzie forecast that global oil demand will grow by 2m b/d this year, with China accounting for 25% of the increase, according to Interfax reporting.