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Oil Summary at European Close: Crude Falls on the Week

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Crude markets are headed for a weekly net loss of around 3% on the week, amid an easing geopolitical risk premium from potential supply disruptions from an Iran-Israel conflict.

  • Brent JUN 24 up 0.3% at 87.41$/bbl
  • WTI MAY 24 up 0.5% at 83.15$/bbl
  • Israel and Iran have played down the significance of an overnight Israeli strike on a military facility near the Iranian city of Isfahan.
  • China will likely face less competition for Venezuelan crude as India steps away from purchasing barrels in the wake of renewed sanctions, according to Platts.
  • Asia’s crude stock draws are slowing, while Europe sees some rebuilding – partially facilitated by refinery maintenance according to Vortexa.
  • Saudi Arabia will require an average oil price of $96.20/bbl this year, if the producer decides to hold output steady close to 9.3mbpd: IMF.
  • Russian crude STS activity reached 310k b/d in H1 April, up 120k b/d on the month to a 10-month high: Vortexa.
  • China’s demand for Iranian crude is unlikely to abate as the US considers new sanctions on Iranian oil exports, according to Platts.
  • An escalation between Israel and Iran is not the base case for oil with attacks still appearing orchestrated: Energy Aspects’ Amrita Sen.
  • Any reintroduction of OPEC+ supply is expected to happen gradually, maintaining a supply deficit in case of weaker than expected H2 demand: Energy Intelligence.
  • The International Monetary Fund expects OPEC+ to start increasing oil output gradually from July.
  • Global oil prices could spike on a further escalation of the Middle East conflict, but excess supply is providing a buffer according to IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath.
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Crude markets are headed for a weekly net loss of around 3% on the week, amid an easing geopolitical risk premium from potential supply disruptions from an Iran-Israel conflict.

  • Brent JUN 24 up 0.3% at 87.41$/bbl
  • WTI MAY 24 up 0.5% at 83.15$/bbl
  • Israel and Iran have played down the significance of an overnight Israeli strike on a military facility near the Iranian city of Isfahan.
  • China will likely face less competition for Venezuelan crude as India steps away from purchasing barrels in the wake of renewed sanctions, according to Platts.
  • Asia’s crude stock draws are slowing, while Europe sees some rebuilding – partially facilitated by refinery maintenance according to Vortexa.
  • Saudi Arabia will require an average oil price of $96.20/bbl this year, if the producer decides to hold output steady close to 9.3mbpd: IMF.
  • Russian crude STS activity reached 310k b/d in H1 April, up 120k b/d on the month to a 10-month high: Vortexa.
  • China’s demand for Iranian crude is unlikely to abate as the US considers new sanctions on Iranian oil exports, according to Platts.
  • An escalation between Israel and Iran is not the base case for oil with attacks still appearing orchestrated: Energy Aspects’ Amrita Sen.
  • Any reintroduction of OPEC+ supply is expected to happen gradually, maintaining a supply deficit in case of weaker than expected H2 demand: Energy Intelligence.
  • The International Monetary Fund expects OPEC+ to start increasing oil output gradually from July.
  • Global oil prices could spike on a further escalation of the Middle East conflict, but excess supply is providing a buffer according to IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath.