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Oil Summary at European Close: Crude Pulls Back

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Crude markets have pulled back during the European afternoon session following a jump in the US dollar with the firmer-than-expected U.S. data providing the latest ‘hawkish’ input. The MNI Chicago business barometer fell 3.5 points to 37.9, the lowest level since Nov. 2022.

  • Brent JUN 24 down 0.6% at 87.84$/bbl
  • WTI JUN 24 down 1% at 81.8$/bbl
  • Mixed signals continue to emerge surrounding the Israel-Hamas conflict: the likelihood of an Israel-Hamas deal on hostages being reached, and the prospect of Israel launching a ground assault into the southern Gazan city of Rafah.
  • OPEC+ overproducers Iraq and Kazakhstan have now both submitted plans on how to deliver pledged production cuts.
  • Mexico’s Pemex has cut its crude exports to the lowest level on record as the government looks to redirect crude to its domestic refineries.
  • Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro said the oil industry recovery and growth is guaranteed despite the reinstatement of US sanctions.
  • Seaborne exports of Russia crude fell by 120kbpd in the week to April 28.
  • Moscow is testing the limits of US sanctions on its tankers after sending the first ship targeted by the US treasury with a cargo to Asia.
  • Nigeria has reduced its OSP for Bonny Light crude to Dated +$2.34/bbl - the lowest since February and lowered from +$3.28/bbl in April.
  • Libya’s crude and condensate exports rose in April to its highest level since October 2022.
  • Brent crude futures are forecast at $84/bbl by the end of the year, according to Goldman Sachs, assuming no further Middle East or Russia supply disruption from conflicts.
  • Asian imports of heavy crude fell to a 5-month low in April, according to Vortexa.
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Crude markets have pulled back during the European afternoon session following a jump in the US dollar with the firmer-than-expected U.S. data providing the latest ‘hawkish’ input. The MNI Chicago business barometer fell 3.5 points to 37.9, the lowest level since Nov. 2022.

  • Brent JUN 24 down 0.6% at 87.84$/bbl
  • WTI JUN 24 down 1% at 81.8$/bbl
  • Mixed signals continue to emerge surrounding the Israel-Hamas conflict: the likelihood of an Israel-Hamas deal on hostages being reached, and the prospect of Israel launching a ground assault into the southern Gazan city of Rafah.
  • OPEC+ overproducers Iraq and Kazakhstan have now both submitted plans on how to deliver pledged production cuts.
  • Mexico’s Pemex has cut its crude exports to the lowest level on record as the government looks to redirect crude to its domestic refineries.
  • Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro said the oil industry recovery and growth is guaranteed despite the reinstatement of US sanctions.
  • Seaborne exports of Russia crude fell by 120kbpd in the week to April 28.
  • Moscow is testing the limits of US sanctions on its tankers after sending the first ship targeted by the US treasury with a cargo to Asia.
  • Nigeria has reduced its OSP for Bonny Light crude to Dated +$2.34/bbl - the lowest since February and lowered from +$3.28/bbl in April.
  • Libya’s crude and condensate exports rose in April to its highest level since October 2022.
  • Brent crude futures are forecast at $84/bbl by the end of the year, according to Goldman Sachs, assuming no further Middle East or Russia supply disruption from conflicts.
  • Asian imports of heavy crude fell to a 5-month low in April, according to Vortexa.