Oil Summary: Crude Reverses Earlier Losses

Crude prices have reversed earlier losses and broke through the resistance as signs of further supply tightening from Saudi Arabia and stronger oil demand support prices.

• Brent SEP 23 up 0.7% at 85.55$/bbl (Expiry today)
• WTI SEP 23 up 0.9% at 81.32$/bbl
• Brent OCT 23 up 0.7% at 85.04$/bbl
• BRENT TECHS: (V3) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
• RES 4: $86.18 - High Jan 23
• RES 3: $85.60 - High Jan 27
• RES 2: $84.79 - High Apr 12 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $84.50 - High Jul 28
• The latest Bloomberg survey and Goldman Sachs note suggested Saudi Arabia will extend its 1mbpd voluntary output cuts into September.
• Goldman Sachs said in a note that global oil demand has risen to an all-time high in July of 102.8mb/d and revised 2023 demand by around 550kb/d. It sees solid demand driving a larger-than-expected 1.8mb/d deficit in the second half this year.
• The latest EIA monthly petroleum supply and monthly oil and gas figures for May will be published later today.
• Energy Aspects Head of Research Amrita Sen comments on oil market fundamentals in latest interview: “I think Chinese oil demand has been very strong, gasoline/jet has been growing, overall demand has been up by 2mn bpd. That hasn’t been the problem [for prices], the problem has been we have destocked an enormous amount of crude.”
• Crude floating storage fell 2.2% last week to 105.06mn barrels as of 28 July.
• Oman raised its crude OSP for September to $80.54/bbl.
• According to GasBuddy data, weekly (Sun-Sat) US gasoline demand was down 0.8% from the prior week and 1.6% below the four-week average. GasBuddy models US gasoline demand at 8.93mbpd and commented that peak summer demand appears to have peaked.
• US gasoline crack down -0.7$/bbl at 39.73$/bbl
• US ULSD crack down -1.5$/bbl at 42.01$/bbl