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Oil Up, Gold Down

COMMODITIES
  • Oil prices up 1.9-2.8% on the day as underlying details of the release of state oil reserves across the US, China, India, Japan and the UK underwhelmed.
  • The US SPR release was larger than expected (50mln bbl vs 35mln) but consisted of 18mln in pre-approved sales and 32mln as part of a swap arrangement, whilst the Indian release of 5mln was very small and Chinese intervention of 7mln no larger than what they've already been in the market for.
  • This could prompt OPEC+ to reverse their planned easing of oil output curbs, tightening the market. OPEC+ next meets on Dec 2.
  • WTI futures up 1.9% to $78.18, below the initial firm resistance point of $80.68 (Nov 16 high) required to ease the developing bearish theme.
  • Brent futures up 2.8% to $81.90, a little stronger than WTI with an ease of the previously developing bearish theme having broken the initial firm resistance level of $80.68 (Nov 16 high). Next resistance at $83.83, the Oct 25 high and bull trigger.
  • Gold prices meanwhile fell further, down another -1.1% on the day to $1784.28, comfortably through the 50-day EMA. The next key support level is $1759, the Nov 3 low.
  • Biden speaking on economy/inflation later today plus US data risk tomorrow with durable goods and personal incomes/consumption due followed by Fed minutes before Thanksgiving.
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