On tap for Thursday: February.......>

US DATA PREVIEW: On tap for Thursday: February business inventories; weekly

claims; March retail sales; Apr Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index; April Markit Mfg and

Services Indexes; February business inventories; March leading indicators.

- On core retail sales, Morgan Stanley economists estimate a 0.3% MoM gain and a

"1.1% gain in headline retail sales, which would be the largest since last May.

Excluding autos, sales should rise 0.7%, still a very strong gain."

- Barclays expect retail sales to "rebound 1.0% m/m in March ... driven by

gasoline station sales, given higher energy prices, and strong retail motor

vehicle sales, consistent with manufacturers' reports released earlier this

month.

- Nomura economists also estimate retail sales of "0.3% m-o-m. However, we see

continued downside risk for the retail sector. Incoming data on aggregate hours

worked and anecdotal evidence from business surveys on activity in the retail

sector remain weak." Nomura adds that "while core retail sales have rebounded

somewhat since a sharp fall in December, the recovery remains partial. It

appears that growth in personal consumption slowed markedly in Q1."