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Only Marginal Paring Of Large Gains Seen On JOLTS, Conf Board

  • Treasuries only marginally pare large gains prompted by a broad sweep of weaker than expected US data, with surprisingly low job openings, quits rates back at pre-pandemic levels and a sharp moderation in consumer-based labor indicators.
  • The front-end leads moves on the day, in yield space with 2YY now -9bps for more than 12bps below pre-data highs.
  • Near-term FOMC pricing sees a large decline, with +3.5bp for Sep (-2bp pre-data) and +12.5bp for a 5.46% terminal in Nov (-5bp), whilst cuts build from near recent lows with 45bp from terminal to Jun’24 (37bp pre-data) and 116bp from terminal to Dec’24 (107bp).

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