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Onshore Rupiah Falls Despite Thursday's Hawkish BI Rate Decision, Wider BoP C/A Surplus

IDR

Spot USD/IDR has added 30 figs and changes hands at IDR15,693, with bulls looking to force their way through Nov 4 high of IDR15,750. Bears take aim at Nov 11 low/50-DMA at IDR15,393/15,372.

  • USD/IDR 1-month NDF last -50 figs at IDR15,696. Technically, initial downside focus falls on the 50-DMA/Nov 11 low at IDR15,394/15,385, with bulls setting their sights on Nov 3 cycle high of IDR15,838.
  • Bank Indonesia raised the 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate by 50bp Thursday, which was the base-case scenario of most analysts. The decision was described as a "front-loaded, preemptive and forward looking step," signalling the central bank's resolve in containing inflation as quickly as possible. Governor Warjiyo noted that Bank Indonesia is "hawkish and serious" about its policy actions.
  • INDOGB 5-Year/10-Year spread halted its move away from multi-year flats and tightened anew as Bank Indonesia struck hawkish notes on the rate-hike while its "Operation Twist" remains in operation.
  • Palm oil futures for January delivery dropped to multi-week lows Thursday, breaching their 50-DMA in the process. They are closed today due to a public holiday in Kuala Lumpur. The aggregate BBG Commodity Index has edged higher.
  • Foreign investors sold a net $10.25mn in Indonesian stocks Thursday. The Jakarta Comp added 0.44% through the day, extending those gains today. The benchmark index sits 0.55% above neutral levels at typing.
  • Indonesia's BoP current account surplus unexpectedly widened to $4.400bn in Q3 from the upward revised $4.023 in Q2, beating the consensus forecast of $3.245bn.

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