Opposition Clear Winner But Could Take Weeks To Form Government

With 97% of the vote counted, the Thai opposition has won the election with Move Forward doing better than expected but in a very close race with Pheu Thai. Together they are headed to win over half of the 400 constituent seats and over half of the 100 seats allocated by proportional representation. They are likely to hold around 280 seats. There is always the risk of protests following elections, but if the results are ignored or one of the main opposition parties barred then there could be significant unrest.

• The head of the army said last week that there is “zero chance” of Thailand returning to military rule.
• 375 seats will be needed to avoid requiring support from the military dominated senate. The two main opposition parties have agreed to work together but they made need to form an alliance with some of the smaller parties. It will take time before a government is formed.
• Pheu Thai leader and PM candidate Paetongtarn has said that her party is ready to start talks with Move Forward and that the party with the most seats should form government. Move Forward’s PM candidate Pita said that his party could from a coalition with Pheu Thai but he won’t work with parties supporting the military.
• Centrist Bhumjaithai is likely to win about 70 seats and may be the deciding party. Move Forwards has said it is prepared to work with them.
• It currently looks like Move Forward has won all 32 of the 33 seats in Bangkok, the progressive party wants to reform monopolies, reduce the political power of the military and change the laws on insulting the monarchy.
• The Election Commission said that there were no irregularities in the voting process.