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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
NEW ZEALAND
NZ labour market data was either below or close to expectations. Q3 employment contracted 0.2% q/q after rising 1%, the first drop since Q2 2022. The unemployment rate rose 0.3pp to 3.9% in line with consensus but the highest since Q2 2021. It was slightly higher than the RBNZ’s projected 3.8% but still consistent with Q4’s 4.4% forecast. Private wage growth came in below the 1% q/q forecast.
NZ unemployment rate %
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
- Employment growth was 2.4% y/y in Q3 on track to meet the RBNZ’s 1.1% projection for Q1 2024. Hours worked rose 0.1% q/q to be up 2.3% y/y down from 3.4% and the underutilisation rate rose 0.5pp to 10.4%, indicating growing labour market capacity especially amongst the under 25s (underutilisation rate 27%).
- The weakness in job growth was in full-time employment which fell 0.4% q/q whereas part-time grew 0.2%. This is a signal of more cautionary hiring.
NZ employment y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
- The increase in the supply of labour has helped to alleviate labour shortages although the participation rate fell 0.4pp to 72% in Q3 but working age population rose 0.6% q/q to be up 2.6% y/y, fastest pace since Q1 2017. With job growth positive until Q3, this has driven a strong increase in the number of unemployed which rose 7.3% q/q and 24.2% y/y in Q3 but the level remains historically low.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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