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Other sell-side reactions to yesterday's fiscal package (1/2)

BOE
  • Barclays: "We believe that the mix of targeted and universal measures mostly removes downside risks but is not large enough for us to change our forecasts at this stage. Hence, we maintain our view that the MPC will hike only twice more this year, in June and August."
  • Berenberg: "Now that the government has committed to keep energy costs affordable with direct fiscal support, it will be hard to reverse – especially if it stokes even higher inflation down the road. The government will be tempted to keep up the support until at least the next election – planned for May 2024 – especially as inflation is likely to remain elevated in 2023. Keep this up and, eventually, the BoE will be forced to bring inflation under control by raising rates well above neutral and triggering a recession. Unemployment would be much worse for living standards than high energy prices, that is for sure."
  • BNP: "We do not think this will shift the scales in favour of a 50bp at the June meeting, not least as the economic impact of the package will remain uncertain and take time for the MPC to embed. As such, we continue to expect a 25bp move. Further ahead, we do think the package increases the chances of additional tightening this year though not materially enough to validate market pricing for around 5 additional 25bp hikes this year, in our view."
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