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Outcome On A Knife Edge Ahead Of 1 Nov Election

ISRAEL

The outcome of tomorrow's general election remains on a knife-edge, with the opposition bloc of parties led by former PM Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud sitting just over or just under the 61 seats required to hold a majority according the the last opinion polls published before the publication blackout period.

  • If Netanyahu's grouping can win a majority, it will likely see the most rightward shift in Israeli gov't politics in many years. The second-largest party in the pro-Netanyahu grouping is set to be the far-right Religious Zionist-Otzma Yehudit alliance. Otzma Yehudit is seen as the ideological successor to the now-banned Kach Party, which advocated for the forced removal of Arabs from Israel.
  • A win for Netanyahu's bloc could damage burgeoning relations with the UAE (the Emirari FM stated the UAE's concern about the potential inclusion of the heads of the Religious Zionist Party or Otzma Yehudit in gov't), or risk the freshly-signed maritime border deal with Lebanon that could see gas fields in the east Med opened up (Netanyahu indicated he would 'neutralise' the deal).
  • Would be a notable shock to see PM Yair Lapid's anti-Netanyahu coalition win a majority, given polls show the alliance falling behind. Would be reliant on Arab parties that previously have refused to work with gov't parties.
  • Polling stations close at 2200 local time (1600ET, 2000GMT, 2100CET) with exit polls expected to be published by news outlets very shortly after this.
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EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timePolitical RiskPolitical Risk BulletBulletEmerging Market NewsPolitical Market News

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