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Outlook: GDP February Flash Watched

CANADA
  • Data: GDP for January, expected +0.2% M/M after 0% in Dec with annual rate down from 3.9% to 3.6% as Omicron hit. Judging by the stellar February jobs print, CIBC expect considerably firmer growth in the Feb flash released at the same time (along with US core PCE inflation).
  • Recap: Today’s CFIB business barometer showed higher expected average price and wage changes although labour shortages are off previous highs. The number of firms seeing business conditions as good at 34% is the highest since Dec but 3-month capex intentions fell.
  • Ontario is to raise its tax on foreign purchases of residential real estate from 15% to 20%, with the levy expanding from Toronto and its surrounding cities to the entire province.
  • The planned 42% cut in oil & gas emissions from current levels by 2030 contrasts to the Oil Sands Pathway Alliance (90% of northern Alberta’s oil sands production) targeting a 32% cut by 2030.
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