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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Political betting markets have shown a strong rally in bettors opting for Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as the most likely running mate for likely Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris. It comes after the Harris campaign confirmed that the first joint event between Harris and her veep pick will take place in the crucial swing state's largest city, Philadelphia, on Tuesday 6 August.
- The other frontrunner for the Democrat VP slot, Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, has saidthat he is not focusing on the VP race and that "Next week my plan right now is to be in Arizona.”
- Data from Electionbettingodds.com, which compiles info from Smarkets, Polymarket, Betfair and PredictIt, now gives Shapiro a 66.2% implied probability of being the Dem VP nominee, up from a low of 24.6% on the afternoon of 30 July. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshar has overtaken Kelly, with a 10.8% implied probability compared to 9.3%.
- The importance of a VP pick can be seen as somewhat overstated when it comes to the eventual winner of the presidential campaign. Nevertheless it can provide either positive or negative (or no) momentum to a campaign which in turn can influence polls, donors, and the nature of issues discussed.
- Indeed, Republican nominee former President Donald Trump's pick of freshman Ohio Sen. JD Vance - initially seen as an effort to ensure a continuation of the 'MAGA movement' after Trump - has been seen aspotentially backfiring on the GOP ticket.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Democratic VP Nominee, %
Source: Electionbettingodds.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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