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Paring Gains, Curves Extend Flatter

US TSYS
  • Decent volumes by the close (TYZ3>1.6M contracts) belied a rather muted session Wednesday, Treasury futures near late session highs after the bell, curves flatter with short end rates lagging all day: 3M10Y -5.677 at -92.909, 2Y10Y -6.788 at -42.313.
  • Technicals: Dec'23 10Y tap 108-14.5 high +10.5, put focus on initial technical resistance at 108-25 (Nov 3 high). Breach of that level puts focus on 109-20 (Sep 19 high).
  • Projected rate cut chance into early 2024 cooled: December holds at 2.4bp at 5.347%, January 2024 cumulative 4.4bp at 5.373%, while March 2024 pricing in -22.3% (-26.1% this morning) chance of a rate cut with cumulative at -1.2bp at 5.317%, May 2024 cumulative -12.5bp at 5.204%. Fed terminal at 5.375% in Feb'24.
  • Cross asset summary: West Texas crude WTI -1.80 at 75.57, Gold -20.32 at 1949.13, US$ index DXY +0.037 at 105.579.
  • Focus on Thursday Fed-speak. Initially, MNI Webcast hosts Richmond Fed Barkin at 1100ET as he discusses policy, economic outlook. Please register to attend: MNI Webcast.
  • Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Powell will attend a moderated discussion at an IMF Conference at 1400ET.
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