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Parity Eyed In NOKSEK Should CPI-ATE Print Above Expectations

NOK

NOK has been primarily driven by international oil price moves and broader risk sentiment thus far in 2024, given the lack of notable domestic data drivers in the last week or so.

  • While December CPI is unlikely to impact the Norges Bank's policy rate decision on Jan 25 (where a hold in rates is firmly expected), it is nonetheless the sole CPI release since the previous meeting in on Dec 14.
  • NOK is therefore still likely to be sensitive to the print on release, to the extent that it may affect the Norges Bank's guidance in January. Recall that the November data (released Dec 11) came in a touch below consensus, but had little material impact on prices.
  • NOKSEK has traded within a range of 0.9734 and 0.9984 since Dec 15. A surprise in either direction may see a break of these levels, with parity the key psychological support on the upside should CPI-ATE print higher than expected.
  • In EURNOK, yesterday's high of 11.4008 is eyed on the upside, with the Dec 27 low of 11.1760 seen as support on any move lower.
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