Free Trial

Payrolls Benchmark Revision Helps Slow Decline In Fed Implied Rates

STIR
  • Likely smaller than expected potential downward revisions to the level of payrolls to Mar’23 and a beat for new home sales helps Fed implied rate expectations stabilise for near-term meetings and lift 1-2bp higher for 2024.
  • They remain down notably on the day though, with prior moves through the session compounded by misses for prelim Aug PMIs shortly beforehand. After recent large increases, the rate path is back near levels seen just before the FOMC minutes.
  • Cumulative hikes from 5.33% effective: +2.5bp Sep (-1.5bp) and +10bp Nov (-2bp).
  • Cuts from Nov terminal: 1.5bp to Dec’23, 48bp to Jun’24 (from 41bp yesterday) and 114bp to Dec’24 (from 104bp).

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.