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US DATA: PCE Components Of PPI Largely Benign, Outside Of Airfares Jump

US DATA
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Mixed developments in key categories from a PCE perspective, all figures % M/M:

  • Airfares +7.2% (after -1.6%), highest since March 2022
  • Auto insurance -0.2% (after +0.20%), lowest since Feb 2023
  • Portfolio management 0.2% (after -0.6%)
  • Medical care 0.2% (after 0.3%)
  • Healthcare services 0.0% (after 0.0%)
  • If anything it looks as though most PCE components are on the soft side with the notable exception of airfares, which typically jump in December. Note these figures are not seasonally adjusted, but the airfares figure is still very high.
  • We would take this chart with a grain of salt given there will be a sizeable downward seasonal adjustment to the airfares figure, but it illustrates that apart from that volatile category, the PPI report was fairly benign from a PCE translation perspective. (One of the few PPI airfare estimates we saw was from Nomura, which saw +1.8%, vs the +7.2% actual.)
  • We await updated December PCE estimates which came into today centered on 0.20% M/M.
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Mixed developments in key categories from a PCE perspective, all figures % M/M:

  • Airfares +7.2% (after -1.6%), highest since March 2022
  • Auto insurance -0.2% (after +0.20%), lowest since Feb 2023
  • Portfolio management 0.2% (after -0.6%)
  • Medical care 0.2% (after 0.3%)
  • Healthcare services 0.0% (after 0.0%)
  • If anything it looks as though most PCE components are on the soft side with the notable exception of airfares, which typically jump in December. Note these figures are not seasonally adjusted, but the airfares figure is still very high.
  • We would take this chart with a grain of salt given there will be a sizeable downward seasonal adjustment to the airfares figure, but it illustrates that apart from that volatile category, the PPI report was fairly benign from a PCE translation perspective. (One of the few PPI airfare estimates we saw was from Nomura, which saw +1.8%, vs the +7.2% actual.)
  • We await updated December PCE estimates which came into today centered on 0.20% M/M.
image