Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
ECB and BoE peak hike pricing regained ground Monday after Friday's drop.
BoE terminal Bank Rate pricing +6.3bp to 6.08% (83bp of further hikes left in the cycle to Mar 2024) - After dipping earlier in the session (some cited an ONS paper eyeing a pullback in core inflation pressures the past 2 months), implied peak rates rebounded, retracing about half their 13bp drop seen on Friday.
- There's 28% prob of a 50bp hike in Sept, with 55bp priced cumulatively through the next 2 meetings.
ECB terminal depo Rate pricing +2.1bp to 3.97% (22bp of further hikes left in the cycle to Dec 2023). ECB peak pricing finished Monday at the highest since Jul 26th, though the 4.00% mark remains elusive ahead of Wednesday's PMIs and Friday's speech by ECB Pres Lagarde at Jackson Hole which are the most evident potential market movers this week.
- That said there's 14.5bp priced for September's meeting (just under 40% prob of a 25bp hike, only slightly below last Thursday's closing level) and 20bp through the next two meetings.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.