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Persimmon Points To Improving UK Consumer Credit Quality

REAL ESTATE SECTOR

Persimmon (PSN LN) issued a positive 4Q23 trading stmt today as some light evident at end of UK housing tunnel.


  1. Weekly net sales up to 0.41 in 4Q23 (from 0.28 a year ago), total annual sales target beaten and commentary alludes to "particularly strong delivery" in the final quarter. Also noted build costs moderating - equity is trading +3% this morning against UK equities flat-to-down.
  2. PSN isn't a major credit name (at all), neither are peers Barratt (BDEV LN), Taylor Wimpey (TW/ LN) or Berkeley (BKG LN) so no direct read-throughs but we'd note that some of the macro indicators are improving.
  3. UK housing transactions had a weak Summer season but have shown a relatively improving trend into the (seasonally-weaker) Winter months. UK house price declines have started to slow (see graphic) and recent price moves have seen 2Y fixed mortgages now available close to 4% (Santander, for example, took 82bp off its 2Y product today). Industry data was showing 2Y fixes at 5.28% in Nov-23.
In short, there are some positive forward signs for UK housing (therefore the economy?) which is a larger credit positive, overall.

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