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Peso Remains Anchored By Cautious BanRep, Consumer Confidence Data Due

COLOMBIA
  • The Colombian peso continues to benefit from a still cautious central bank, which has only delivered 50bp of easing to date and is still sounding reluctant to step up the pace of cuts from 25bp just yet. Last week, Governor Villar continued to strike a cautious tone, flagging significantly above target inflation and the ongoing risk from El Nino. For the time being, USDCOP remains around the middle of its roughly 3870-3980 YTD trading range.
  • On the data front this week, January consumer confidence will be published today, with analysts expecting sentiment to edge up to -16.3, from -17.3. On Wednesday, December IP, retail sales and trade data will be released, while on Thursday, December economic activity and Q4 GDP will cross. The economy is expected to have grown by 0.8% y/y in Q4, vs. -0.3% in Q3.
  • Ecopetrol CEO, Ricardo Roa, said in an interview with El Tiempo that Ecopetrol will transfer the Government 56 trillion pesos for royalties, taxes and dividends in 2023 compared to transfers of 42.6 trillion pesos in 2022.
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