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Peso Stable, BSP Sees Mar CPI At +4.6% Y/Y

PHP

Spot USD/PHP trades flat at PHP48.540, with bulls looking for a jump above the 200-DMA at PHP48.646 before taking aim at Feb 23 high of PHP48.755. Bears need a slide through Mar 30 low of PHP48.410 before targeting Mar 12 low of PHP48.370.

  • In an emotional televised address, Pres Duterte warned of "bleak months," attributing the severity of the Philippines' Covid-19 outbreak to the fact that it is not a vaccine-producing nation.
  • Comments on inflation from BSP Gov Diokno did the round this morning. Diokno said that BSP's inflation forecast for March is +4.2%-5.0% Y/Y, with a point forecast of +4.6%, as easing costs of food and electricity are expected to offset the impact of weaker peso and higher oil prices.
  • Philippine bank lending and money supply data come out today. As a reminder, net lending has been shrinking since December, for the first time since 2006.

Fig. 1: Philippines Bank Lending Net of RRPs Y/Y (%)

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