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Pill: Place A Lot Of Weight On Skewed Outcomes

BOE

Q: Any thoughts on the longer-term lessons for inflation targeting, from the last 2 years?

  • A: Learnt that inflation targeting based on deviations from target at specific horizon is a little simplistic based on big challenges faced. That framework puts a lot of emphasis on linear approximations and relies on shocks being small and around target. We have had such a big shock that we have non-linearities.
  • Over the past few years the fan chart was the key indicator of policy. That framework doesn't really capture the complexity or richness of type of challenges we are facing.
  • Do put a lot of weight on skews. Challenge is how to communicate that better.

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