PM Ardern's Labour Retain Wide Lead As Libertarian ACT Hit New High

Latest opinion polling from New Zealand shows Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's centre-left Labour Party retaining a wide (although narrowing) lead over the main opposition centre-right National Party. However, the decline in support comes at a potentially dangerous time for the Ardern gov't.

• The country has recorded its first locally transmitted COVID-19 case in some time, resulting in a three-day nationwide lockdown. Of all developed economies, New Zealand has the lowest rate of vaccination by some distance. While public support for lockdowns remains high, should the gov'ts vaccine rollout not begin to pick up pace, or if a more widespread COVID-19 outbreak emerges then the public mood could shift quickly.
• General election poll : Labour : 43 % (-5), National: 28 % (+4), ACT: 13 % (+2), Green: 7 % (-1), New Zealand First: 4,4 % (-0,6), Maori Party: 1,7 % (+0,2). UMR, Fieldwork 21 Jul-1 Aug, chgs w/ 24 Jun-1 Jul 21.
  
• Preferred Prime Minister poll: Ardern (NZLP-inc): 50 % (-5), Seymour (ACT) : 14 % (+2), Collins (NAT): 11 % (+1). UMR, Fieldwork 21 Jul-1 Aug, chgs w/ 24 Jun-1 Jul 21.
• While the polling shows a dip in support for Ardern and Labour, the lead over opposition parties remains extremely wide, and the next election is not due until 2024, significantly reducing risks for Ardern's gov't in the short term.
• The poll also shows support for the right-wing libertarian ACT at an all-time-high of 13%, while party leader David Seymour comes second in the 'preferred PM' polling, with 14% support compared to just 11% for Nationals' leader Judith Collins.