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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson remains in an extremely vulnerable position amidst the continuing fallout from the 'Partygate' scandal involving the breaking of COVID lockdown rules at 10 Downing Street.
- Opinion polling shows Johnson's centre-right Conservatives in freefall. The latest Redfield and Wilton poll from 17 January gives the opposition Labour Party a 14% lead over the Conservatives, the largest Labour lead with that pollster on record and the largest in any poll since April 2013, when TNS put Ed Miliband's Labour 15% ahead of David Cameron's Conservatives.
Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling, % and 5-Poll Moving Average
Source: YouGov, Redfield & Wilton, Ipsos MORI, Opinium, Survation, SavantaComRes, Deltapoll, Kantar, MNI
- There is no way of knowing how close Johnson is to facing a leadership contest. A total of 54 Conservative MPs must send letters to the 1922 Committee of backbench Conservative MPs to trigger a race.
- Potential frontrunners for any contest - Chancellor Rishi Sunak, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, former Health Sec and 2019 leadership challenger Jeremy Hunt, and Trade Minister Penny Mordaunt - have all so far shyed away from setting out any leadership ambitions.
- Should Johnson be forced from office, policy impact will come down to identity of his successor. An 80-seat majority would usually indicate that a PM can carry their policy agenda, but this cohort of Conservative MPs has proved rebellious and there is the potential for further fraying between the 'red wall' intake favouring more state investment to 'level up' areas of northern England and southern English Conservative MPs more Thatcherite in their economic outlook.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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