PM Kishida Eyes Cabinet Reshuffle Amid Multiplying Challenges, Flagging Approval Ratings

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida plans to reshuffle his Cabinet as soon as this Wednesday (August 10), national broadcaster NHK reported without attribution. The NHK added that Kishida will also announce nominations for senior executive positions within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.

• Jiji suggested that Toshimitsu Motegi will remain LDP Secretary General, keeping the no. 2 post of the ruling party. However, Kishida considers replacing current heads of General Council, Policy Research Council and Election Strategy Council. All three are senior executive officials of the LDP and sit on its board.
• There have been rumours of Kishida planning to nominate an experienced member of the Abe faction for the Chair of Policy Research Council, which serves as the party's think tank, studying and planning its policies. The post is currently occupied by Sanae Takaichi, a close ally of the late ex-PM Shinzo Abe but not a member of his faction.
• Several press reports suggest that among those to be replaced is Nobuo Kishi, the Defence Minister and Abe's brother. It is expected that other key ministers, including Finance Minister Suzuki, Foreign Minister Hayashi and Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno, will keep their portfolios. Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Hagiuda will either stay or be offered another important post, possibly that currently occupied by Sanae Takaichi.
• Abe's untimely death on campaign trail exactly a month ago casts a long shadow over the imminent Cabinet reshuffle and the rejig of the LDP's executive line-up. First, the departure of such domineering figure inevitably leaves a power vacuum that necessitates a recalibration of intra-party distribution of influence. Second, his links with the Unification Church have inflicted reputational damage on the ruling party.
• The current circumstances present a unique opportunity for Fumio Kishida to consolidate his control of the party. Replacing the allies of his influential predecessor would eliminate internal tensions over Kishida's flagship policy proposals and send a strong message to the factions that outnumber Kishida's own.
• Over the weekend, Kishida noted that he will require all current and prospective ministers to disclose their relations with the Unification Church. The assassination of Shinzo Abe by a man disgruntled with the controversial religious movement prompted the media to shed light on the LDP's ties with the "Moonies," contributing to the slide in the approval ratings of the Kishida administration.
• The recovery in public support for the ruling party and the stabilisation of its internal matters would be a welcome development for the Prime Minister at a time when his government faces a slew of challenges, including tensions in the Taiwan Strait and Russia's war on Ukraine. An increase in party discipline would also facilitate intra-party consultations on the FY2023 budget.