PM's Euro Parl't Run Could Leave Croatia w/o Moderating Influence

Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković is set to top his conservative Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ)'s list in the upcoming European Parliment elections, taking place in the western Balkan state on 9 June. Plenković is not the only sitting prime minister to top their party's list in the EP elections, with Italian PM Giorgia Meloni also standing. Ostensibly Plenković's intention is to rally support for the HDZ following the formation of a new coalition gov't. However, as Politico notes, "Others fear Plenković could accept a mandate in Brussels following the June ballot, leaving Croatian politics bereft of his moderating influence."

• Plenković's pro-EU, pro-Ukraine stance has been warmly welcomed in Brussels, and Germany's Bild has even speculatedthat he could seek the Commission president's job (an unlikely scenario in the short-term in our view).
• However, should he leave frontline domestic politics it would leave a new coalition between the HDZ and the right-wing nationalist, social conservative Homeland Movement (DP) without a major moderating force.
• Indeed, the new coalition has already caused something of a stir in ethnic tensions following the exclusion of the Independent Democratic Serb Party (SDSS) from coalition. The Serb minority interest party has historically backed whoever is in gov't. However, the Croat nationalist DP has demanded their exclusion as price of supporting the coalition.
• A change in HDZ leadership could see the party shift in a more nationalist direction in order to win back DP voters (many of whom are disaffected former HDZ backers), risking tensions with Brussels and internally.