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PM Solberg Fined For COVID Breaches As 'Blue Bloc' Trails In Polls

NORWAY

Norwegian Prime Minister Erna Solberg has been fined NOK20,000 (USD2,352) for breaching her own coronavirus restrictions by holding a 13-person family gathering for her 60th birthday.

  • Police do not usually issue fines for breaching the 10-person limit on gatherings in Norway, but police chief Ole Saeverund stated that "Though the law is the same for all, all are not equal in front of the law," and that Solberg being at the forefront of pushing for restrictions meant the fine was appropriate.
  • Solberg's breaking of restrictions has coincided with a minor but noticeable drop off in support for her governing centre-right Conservative Party (see chart below).
Chart 1. Opinion Polling by Party, %

Source: Kantar TNS, Norstat, Ipsos MMI, Sentio, Respons Analyse, Opinion Perduco, Norfakta, MNI

  • This decline in support comes at a bad time for Solberg's minority gov't, which faces legislative elections on 13 September 2021.
  • At present it appears likely that Solberg will lose the election, with the 'blue bloc' of centre-right and right-wing parties (Conservative, Progress, Christian Democrat, Liberal) trailing the 'red bloc' of centre-left parties (Labour, Socialist Left, Centre).
Chart 2. Opinion Polling by Bloc, %

Source: Kantar TNS, Norstat, Ipsos MMI, Sentio, Respons Analyse, Opinion Perduco, Norfakta, MNI

  • While there are still some months before the election, even if the blue bloc narrows the gap on the red bloc, the prospect of Solberg holding onto power seems slim. Not included in either bloc are the environmentalist Greens and the far-left socialist Red Party. While neither party has served in gov't, they are both more likely to side with the Labour-led red bloc that the centre-right, potential providing support via a confidence-and-supply agreement.

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