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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is expected to deliver his keynote speech to the Conservative party conference in Manchester at 1115BST (0615ET, 1215CET), with the PM expected to announce the controversial cancellationof the northern leg of the HS2 high-speed rail line. The conference, initially billed as an opportunity for Sunak to cement his position as party leader ahead of the general election expected next year, has been instead dominated by speculation over the future of HS2 and internal party divisions. Livestream of speech can be found here.
- The outlook for the Conservatives in opinion polling remains downbeat, with the centre-left Labour party's lead averaging 17% in the three polls carried out so far in October. Betting market data from Smarkets gives the Conservatives just a 7.7% implied probability of winning a majority at the next election, compared to 26.0% for a hung parliament and 65.4% for a Labour majority.
- With widespread market expectations for Labour to win the next election there will be increased focus on its party conference starting 8 October, given that any policy announcements will be seen as more likely to come into force post-election than those put out by the Conservatives.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Outcome of Next General Election, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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