Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to face another intense period of public scrutiny as ITV publishes photos showing the PM apparently drinking in the company of others at Downing St in 2020, in contravention of COVID-19 restrictions in place at the time.
- At some time this week civil servant Sue Gray is expected to release her report on incidents in Downing St. and Whitehall that may have broken COVID-19 rules in place to combat the pandemic.
- Political betting markets give an implied probability of 50% that Johnson will remain in office until 2024 or later, with a 25.6% implied probability he leaves office in 2022.
- There is no clear frontrunner to take over the Conservative party should Johnson step down/be forced out. Data from Smarkets shows Foreign Secretary Liz Truss leading with a 13.6% implied probability of becoming leader. Chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee Tom Tugendhat is second on 12.5%, former Health and Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt and Defence Secretary Ben Wallace are joint third with 10.6% implied probability of taking the top job, and Minister of State for Trade Penny Mordaunt fourth on 10.2%.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Year PM Johnson Leaves Office, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok