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Poland, Czech CPI Data on the Docket; NBH Minutes Eyed for Dovish Dissenters

CEE
  • A bear threat in EURPLN remains present. Attention is on 4.2935, the Dec 13 low and key support. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started in September last year. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 4.3608, the 50-day EMA. CPI and GDP data highlight the local slate next week. Our review of this week’s NBP decision can be found here.
  • EURHUF reached a high of 389.74 today, though has since reversed its gains. A break of the Jan 30 high of 390.49 is needed to bolster upside momentum, whereas a breach of the 50-day EMA at 383.13 would instead reinstate a bearish theme. Looking ahead to next week, the release of the January NBH meeting minutes provides the highlight after Deputy Governor Virag said the 75bp move was not made unanimously. The last time the council’s minutes reflected any dissent was in May 2016. Preliminary GDP data for Q4 will also cross.
  • EURCZK continues to trade comfortably above 25.00 following yesterday’s CNB rate cut (MNI Review here). CPI data is the key release of the week in Czechia next week. The Board said yesterday that inflation likely fell to around +3% Y/Y in January, reaching the upper bound of the tolerance band.
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