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Polish Central Bank Publishes Statement After Monetary Policy Meeting

NBP

The National Bank of Poland has released the statement after leaving interest rates unchanged at its monetary policy meeting held on March 7-8.

  • The Monetary Policy Council noted that economic activity in Poland slowed down, which was reflected in a 2.0% Y/Y GDP contraction in 4Q2022. They added that reduced consumption demand weighs on economic growth, while investments continue to increase. Furthermore, "despite the slowdown in activity, labour market situation remains good, including low unemployment. The number of working persons remains high, although its decline in the private sector is observed."
  • "The increase in inflation compared to December was driven to a large extent by an increase in VAT rates for energy goods. At the same time, despite weakening demand growth, the level of inflation was still affected by a significant increase in costs (...). However, for several months commodity prices and PPI inflation have been decreasing (...). Together with weakening economic activity, it will support a decline in domestic CPI inflation in the coming quarters."
  • "The Council assessed, that the weakening of the external economic conditions, together with a decline in commodity prices, will continue to curb global inflation, which will contribute to lower price growth in Poland. (...) the Council assesses that the earlier strong monetary policy tightening undertaken by NBP will lead to a decline in inflation in Poland towards the NBP inflation target."
  • There has been no indication of an official end to the tightening cycle. The MPC concluded by saying that its further decisions will be data-dependent and reiterated that it stands ready to intervene in FX markets if needed.
  • The MPC cited marginal tweaks to staff macroeconomic projections, which see a slightly higher GDP growth path and a slightly lower CPI inflation path. The revisions do not change the Council's overall assessment of the economy in any fundamental way.
  • Click here for the full document.
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