POLITICAL RISK: State Polls Continue To Point To Close US Election

The latest analysis for the November 5 US presidential election shows that the outcome of voting in the seven key swing states remains very close and difficult to call. Thus just over a week out from the vote, the contest remains tight.

• The average of national polls has the Democrat’s Harris ahead of the Republican’s Trump by around a percentage point with the BBC average of polls at 48 to 47 and the Wikipedia average at 48.6% to 47.3%. See the MNI POLITICAL RISK policy tracker.
• The Economist’s simulation of the probability of each candidate winning has Trump on 55% with 277 electoral votes and Harris 45% with 261. 270 are needed to win the presidency. These estimates are also consistent with a tight race.
• Three late October state polls show that neither candidate is a clear favourite to win any of the seven swing states. All three surveys said that there’s an even chance of either Trump or Harris winning Michigan (15 votes), Nevada (6), Wisconsin (10) and Pennsylvania (19). Three indicated that Trump should win North Carolina (16) and two polls suggested he is also likely to gain Arizona (11) and Georgia (16).
• The Economist probabilities have Trump in front in all states but Michigan.
• These states are important as in 2016 Trump won all but Nevada and in 2020 Biden gained all except North Carolina.