Poll-Liberals Face Difficult Task, Even If PM Trudeau Goes

Latest opinion polling makes difficult reading for Canadian PM Justin Trudeau and his governing centre-left Liberal Party (LPC), with both the party and the PM trailing the main opposition centre-right Conservatives (CPC) by a notable margin. The next election is not due until Oct 2025 at the latest, meaning that there is time for the LPC to stage a rally in support. However, the polling indicates that this might only prove possible with a combination of the following events: a decline in mortgage rates, an improvement in the economy, Trudeau stepping down as leader, the increased likelihood of a CPC gov't under Pierre Poilievre.

• Polling from Abacus Data, 27 Oct-1 Nov, 2,200 respondents.
• GE polling: CPC 39% (-1), LPC 26% (=), New Democratic Party 18% (-1), Bloc Quebecois 7% (=), Greens 5% (=), People's Party 4% (+1) chgs w/15 Oct
• Leader Net Approvals: Poilievre: +8%, Singh: +5%, Trudeau: -24%
• "Would you be more or less likely to vote Liberal if Trudeau was no longer leader?" No Impact: 52%, More likely: 34%, Less Likely: 14%
• "Who do you think will win the next federal election?" Poilievre/Conservatives: 43%, Trudeau/Liberals: 20%, Singh/NDP: 10%, Unsure: 27%
• Former Chief of Staff to ex-PM Jean Chretien, LPC Senator Percy Downe, penned a well-circulated article calling for Trudeau's resignation as a 'prudent course of action.' While Downe's views are not necessarily widespread in the LPC, such articles could raise question marks over Trudeau's longevity as PM.